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AN ARTICLE ON
APPLICATION OF “THE DOW THEORY”
ON THE NSE NIFTY

BY: HARDIK P. BAXI

Fulltime faculty of finance at Swami Sahajanand College of Comm. & Mgt. Bhavnagar, Gujarat, India.
Visiting faculty of finance at ICFAI, Sahajanand Institute of Mgt., Vision International Institute of Mgt. Bhavnagar, Gujarat, India.

hardikbaxi@gmail.com

INDEX

Abstract
The Dow Theory
Construction of HARTRANX
Application of the theory on NIFTY
Conclusions

ABSTRACT

The research paper deals with the application of The Dow theory on the NSE NIFTY. I have gone through the tenants of the Dow Theory as propounded by Charles Dow. All the tenants of the Dow Theory after studying precisely have been used to create a transport index which is not available in the Indian stock markets.
The Dow Theory has its basics in the 1897 when Charles Dow developed the Widely known Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Transport Average comprising of 50 railroad companies.
The Theory has attracted many financial analysts specifically the technical analysts. However, what I feel is, the theory can also be helpful to the economists who would like to forecast the reversal of economic cycles.
Using the SIX MAIN TENANTS OF DOW THEORY, I have constructed a transport index for the study purpose. I have named the transport index as HARTRANX or the Hardik Transport Index. For constructing the index, I have taken the period from 03-01-2000 to 26-02-2010. I have used 8 companies for the said purpose. Details of index construction are in the following chapters.
The findings as was expected; are affirmative and prove the application of Dow Theory RST 3TS LH Left Handed Electric Guitar Package with Full Size Electric Guitar. Amp. Carry Bag. and Instructional DVD on our markets. I am sure that this article will be of great help to all the technical analysts and the people who wish to apply the Dow Theory on Indian stock markets.
THE DOW THEORY

The Dow Theory is the granddaddy of all technical market studies. Although it is frequently criticized for being “too late,” and occasionally derided (particularly in the early stages of a Bear Market) by those who rebel at accepting its verdicts, it is known by name to nearly everyone who has had any association with the stock market, and respected by most. Many who heed it in greater or lesser degree in determining their investment policies never realize that it is purely and simply “technical.” It is built upon and concerned with nothing but the action of the stock market itself (as expressed in certain “averages”), deriving nothing from the business statistics on which the fundamentalists depend.
There is much in the writings of its original promulgator, Charles H. Dow, to suggest that he did not think of his “theory” as a device for forecasting the stock market, or even as a guide for investors, but rather as a barometer of general business trends. Dow founded the Dow–Jones Financial News Service and is credited with the invention of stock market averages. The basic principles of the theory, which was later named after him, were outlined by him in editorials he wrote for The Wall Street Journal. Upon his death in 1902 his successor, as editor of the Journal, William P. Hamilton, took up Dow’s principles and, in the course of 27 years of writing on the stock market, organized them and formulated them into the Dow Theory as we know it today.
Before proceeding to an explanation of the theory itself, it will be necessary to examine the stock averages which it employs.
Long before the time of Dow, the fact was familiar to bankers and businessmen that the securities of most established companies tended to go up or down in price together. Exceptions — stocks that moved against the general nancial tide — were rare, nor did they as a rule persevere in that contrary course for more than a few days or weeks at a time. It is true that when a boom was on, the prices of some issues rose faster and farther than others, and when the trend was toward depression, some stocks declined rapidly while others would put up considerable resistance to the forces that were dragging the market down, but the fact remained that most securities tended to swing together. (They still do, needless to say, and always will.)
This fact, as we have said, has long been commonly known and accepted — so completely taken for granted that its importance is usually overlooked. For, it is important — tremendously important from many angles in addition to those which come within the province of this volume. One of the best of all reasons for a student of market techniques to start with the Dow Theory is because that theory stresses the general market trend.
Charles Dow is believed to have been the first to make a thorough effort to express the general trend (or, more correctly, level) of the securities market in terms of the average price of a selected few representative stocks. As finally set up in January of 1897, in the form which has continued to date, and used by Dow in his studies of market trends, there

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